automotive

A very murky crystal ball

A Very Murky Crystal Ball

January is generally a time to take stock and review the year ahead; to try and foresee what factors may affect our businesses, either positively, or negatively. We assess risk, i.e. what is the probability of an event occurring and what is the consequence if it does.

As Residual Value (RV) forecasters we go through the same process but our horizon is further out and we look at the factors influencing both sides of the market equation, supply and demand.

Supply:
­ Will last year’s sales boom continue?
­ Will impending deflation/stagflation in Europe tempt OEMs to push even more cars into the UK?
­ Will the economic climate prevent OEMs from increasing prices or, at least, reduce their size?